Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of ‘VAN’ earthquake precursors
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Statistical Tests for Evaluating Earthquake Prediction Methods
The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the enhancement factor over random chance is given. The seismic earthquake signal may preferentially precede earthquakes even if the VAN methodology fails to forecast...
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Statistical verification of the VAN or SES (seismic electric signals) predictions from 1987-1989 is considered. The test is carried out with the updated ruies proposed by Varotsos et al. [1996]. Although for the Greek (SI-NOA) earthquake catalog the VAN method formally is successful, this high rate of success is due either to the retroactive adjustment of prediction rules or to the non-randomne...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Journal International
سال: 1992
ISSN: 0956-540X,1365-246X
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246x.1992.tb00552.x